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Republicans see President Trump’s sagging approval ratings as a major problem heading into the midterms.

Their fears are underscored by a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday showing Trump’s approval ratings hitting new second-term lows as voters expressed anxiety about inflation, gas prices and U.S. involvement in the war in Iran.

While GOP leaders are projecting confidence publicly, Republicans privately fear that rising costs mostly stemming from the ongoing war may lead to record losses in the upcoming elections.

“It’s a serious problem,” said one Republican consultant and Trump ally who has clients involved in competitive races. “He ran on the economy and immigration and both are in the s—ter.”

“If he’s sitting in the low 30s as we approach November, Republicans are screwed, period, hard stop,” the consultant said.

Kevin Madden, a veteran Republican strategist, said that while there’s still time for Trump and the GOP to recover, it’s a “tough environment” for Republican candidates.

“While a lot of the focus tends to be on the day-to-day noise of campaign season, the state of the broader political environment can be measured by some key fundamentals. Presidential approval rating, right direction-wrong direction indices, and consumer sentiment all provide good indicators of what mood campaigns will be encountering back home in states and districts across the country,” Madden said. “Right now, all these indicators are flashing.”

The New York Times/Siena poll revealed 37 percent of respondents said they approved of the president’s job performance while 59 percent disapproved. The previous Times/Siena survey showed Trump with an approval rating of 40 percent, as 57 percent of those polled said they disapproved of his job performance.

Republicans have been optimistic about the gains they’ve made in their recent redistricting efforts, and that more favorable election maps could blunt losses in the midterms, even as Trump’s standing remains shaky.

But Republicans say the polling highlights the widespread discomfort with Trump’s actions since he took office in January 2025. While the president promised a robust economy and an end to foreign wars on the campaign trail, the polls show an increasing frustration and worry among voters about the country’s overall direction.

“There is nothing that Trump has done to improve the lives of people that have supported him since being elected, with the exception of a small sliver who are happy with their 401(k),” said Susan Del Percio, a longtime Republican strategist who does not support the president. “There’s war, there’s inflation, there are tariffs and Trump is telling you that it’s not that big of a deal to be patient.”

Del Percio said some voters were willing to take a hit from Trump’s tariffs because they liked the philosophy behind the move and how it served as “part of the America-first kind of ethos,” but they are no longer willing to go along with Trump’s actions.

She compared the situation to President George H. W. Bush’s promise of “no new taxes” during the 1988 presidential campaign. Bush inevitably had to raise taxes in 1990 ahead of that year’s midterm elections.

“And Democrats took it home all the way to 1992 and the election of Bill Clinton,” she said.

“If you go back and look at the polling, it matches up,” she said, referring to how Trump’s polling looks similar to polling for Bush from more than three decades ago.

As the summer stretch before the midterms approaches, Democrats are feeling increasingly bullish about winning back the House and even the Senate.

But at the same time, strategists are urging those in their party not to be fooled by their current standings. While they acknowledge they are winning because of Trump’s problems, they’re clear Democrats have to do more if they want to win future elections.

“It is going to be enough for 2026 for Democrats to focus on Trump’s failings, Trump’s negatives and the administration’s death spiral,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. “But it’s not going to fundamentally change the mistrust that the public at large and the base of the Democratic Party has for elected Democrats and the Democratic establishment. That’s still present. That’s still there.”

Payne said Democrats who think it’s enough to rely on Trump’s low popularity are “deluding” themselves.

“I cannot put into words how angry and alienated and completely over it people are,” Payne added. “It feels like both parties have been trading spots of ‘Who does the public hate less?’ For the last three and a half years, it’s been Republicans. That’s changed in the last year.”

All the same, he added, “Democrats are still at a deficit” looking at future elections.

And for now, the weight is on Republicans, even Trump’s allies acknowledge.

“Anyone running in these midterms should be concerned,” the Republican consultant said. “It’s like turning a ship. It’s going to take time for perceptions to change. At the end of the day, Americans consistently vote their pocketbook.”

As Del Percio put it, “We’re in mid-May and there’s just not enough time on the clock to get everything to turn around.”

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