A string of new polls shows that President Donald Trump is not going to climb out of the hole that the Iran war and the subsequent closure of the key oil shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz put him in.

The early summer ceasefire allowed Trump’s approval rating to rebound slightly from the second-term lows that came in the late spring, according to poll aggregator Nate Silver. But with the ceasefire off, the memorandum of understanding between the two countries dead and Yemen’s Houthis firing on ships transporting Saudi oil through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, Trump is sinking yet again.

He stands at 39% approval in both a Fox News poll released on Wednesday and an Emerson College poll released on Thursday. A Pew poll released on Thursday put his approval at 34%. While each of these approval ratings is similar to where Trump stood in the spring, they also bear huge warning signs for him and Republicans as the midterm elections fast approach. (Both the Fox and Emerson polls have margins of error of three points and the Pew poll margin of error is two points.)

Democrats lead the generic ballot by 11 points in the Emerson poll. While likely an outlier, that would far exceed the margin that Democrats won by in 2018 when they won 41 House seats. The Fox News poll gives Democrats a seven-point edge in the generic ballot – close to where the polls landed prior to the 2018 election. However, that poll also shows Democrats getting 53% of the vote, the highest a party has hit in the poll since 1996.

Another poll by Politico, released on Wednesday with a margin of error of two points, provides further warning signs for Republicans as Trump’s base of MAGA-identifying voters no longer support the war on Iran. Just one-third of MAGA-identifying voters support Trump’s war, down from over 50% in May. And they largely blame the war for the rise in gas prices.

Similarly, the Pew poll found that Americans’ worsening views of the economy are largely driven by Republicans’ increasing pessimism. Just 41% of Republicans say the economy is excellent or good now, down from 49% in January. Sixty percent of Americans blame Trump’s policies for their negative views of the economy, up from 52% in January. This is again driven by Republicans increasingly blaming Trump for their economic woes.

The ceasefire with Iran was supposed to end Trump’s slide, but he has found himself incapable of striking a deal to reopen shipping lanes that his war closed. With the war back on and expanding further, it does not appear that Trump has any way out.

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