Argus

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Apr 07, 2026

Intermediate Term

Long Term

Summary

Widening our typical view and looking at weekly charts, we see important signals for both bulls and bears. For the bulls, the S&P 500 (SPX) bounced back and has recaptured its 50-week simple average just one week after undercutting this sometime-key support. The index did the exact same thing back in October 2023, and that ignited a huge rally. For the bears, the 10-week exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed below the 21-week EMA. The last time this bearish crossover occurred was in March 2025 at the start of the tariff tantrum.  Based on the depth of the completed rounding-top pattern (formed from November 2025 until March), a measured move for the SPX first targets the 6,190 area and then 6,040. These levels align with key support clusters, including the 38.2% retracement of the April 2025 rally (6,180) and the previous breakout level (between 6,000 and 6,140). We believe that the zone between 6,100 and 6,200 is the most logical place for the current decline to stabilize, this because of the cluster of support in that area. Former breakout areas often are tested.   The current secular bull market for the SPX began back in 2009, with the long-term bullish channel (log scale) starting i

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