Argus

•

Mar 31, 2026

Intermediate Term

Long Term

Summary

The major indices are heading for their worst month and weakest quarter since the bear market in 2022. This will be the second straight March with a dismal performance for the stock market, and the indices look vulnerable to further damage as prices are in a large "no man's land" region with little chart resistance. In addition to many weak individual charts, we now have to deal with the breakdown in once-leading semiconductor stocks. The semis make up about 14% of the S&P 500 (SPX) and over 24% of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). The two largest semis in the SPX and the QQQ are the $4 trillion NVDA (7.5% of the SPX and 8.6% of the QQQ) and the $1.4 trillion AVGO (2.6% of the SPX and 3% of the QQQ).  The VanEck Semiconductor (SMH, $362.50) is the largest semi ETF. After a massive 138% advance from April 8 until February 25, price broke its bullish channel and lost its 21-week exponential average for the first time since last February. Over the past six months, downside volume has been heavy, a clear sign institutional distribution. There is minor chart support in the $325-$355 region. Meanwhile, an initial 38.2% retracement of the rally from last April comes in at $329, the ris

Exclusive reports, detailed company profiles, and best-in-class trade insights to take your portfolio to the next level

Sign in to access your portfolio