CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Monday declared that history is on the Democrats’ side as House Republicans are “running for the exits” and retiring in record numbers ahead of the midterms.

“You don’t run for the exits unless you know trouble is brewing. And House Republicans, so far, believe trouble is absolutely brewing,” Enten said.

Just days after Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.) announced that he won’t seek reelection in November, Enten noted that he’s among three dozen House Republicans this election cycle who have (so far) announced that they will leave their seats at the end of their current terms, the highest amount since 1930.

That figure edges past the previous record set during President Donald Trump’s first term, when 34 House Republicans retired or sought other office in the 2018 midterm election cycle, which notably resulted in a blue wave.

Enten revealed that the party with fewer House retirements has gone on to win midterm election cycles a majority of the time (80%) since 1982.

“House Democrats clearly think something good is going to happen and House Republicans clearly think something very bad, very bad is gonna happen,” he said.

Enten predicted that the number of GOP retirements will likely “climb ever higher” before adding that Trump’s approval rating — which currently sits at an average 40%, per The New York Times — could be a factor in the GOP exodus.

When the president’s approval is less than 50%, their party has lost an average of 34 House seats in midterm election cycles since 1938, per Enten.

The data chief emphasized that Democrats need to pick up just three seats to gain the House majority in this year’s midterms.

“Even the worst-case scenario for Democrats is not anywhere close to what Republicans need to hold on to the House of Representatives,” he said.

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