FTSE 100 rises 8 points to 9,926

US and Iran held 'successful' peace talks, Trump claims

Iran says 'no direct communications' made

Oil prices fall, gold and silver erase losses

UK government borrowing costs earlier hit 2008 high

A summary of the London blue-chip index's movements today:

Opens down 135 points, with miners and airlines leading the decline. Gold was down 8% at almost four-month lows, oil up 2%.

Losses were extended to over 240 points just before 11am, then just after the turn of that hour Donald Trump posted that "very good and productive conversations" talks has been held with Iran.

This led to almost a 300-point swing in half an hour, from below -220 to +50. Brent crude futures swung from $114 a barrel to below $99.

Iran snapped back that there had been "no direct or indirect contact" with the US, resulting in shares flattening off again and oil climbing back up above $100.

Since then, with Trump speaking to various media, gains for the FTSE have wavered from flat to almost 100 points into the green. Oil has zigzagged from $98 to above $106, back to $97 and now up above $103 a barrel again.

Trump has told media that the US has been speaking to a "top person" in Iran, not the new Supreme Leader.

Markets have "gone absolutely bonkers in the last couple of hours", says market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at FOREX.com.

With Trump having instructed the Department of War to postpone military strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, but Iran denied the talks, Razaqzada says "a lot could still change".

"For now, however, stock markets and gold have stayed off their earlier lows, suggesting investors have welcomed the news."

However, quickly the market is moving, says Kathleen Brooks at XTB, it is worth looking at the facts.

"Is the Strait of Hormuz open? No," she says. "Is oil and other energy supplies flowing freely around the world? No.

"While a de-escalation of this conflict is widely welcome, the market is moving based on one tweet from the US President and some comments to Fox Business that a deal with Iran could come in the next 5 days or sooner.

"However, the President has a capricious temperament, if there are more strikes from either side, or if the President is using this to buy time to move US troops into position to physically secure the Strait of Hormuz, it is hard to see this recovery rally lasting."

She says the oil price is probably the best gauge to measure market sentiment today, with Brent crude on another upward move at this precise time.

Forecasts for Legal & General's three main business divisions have been cut by RBC Capital Markets, which sees the most pressing risks in the bulk annuity market.

The broker's core operating profit forecasts were trimmed by around 3% per year through to 2028, with the sharpest downgrade in asset management, where estimates are cut by 13% for 2026.

The most pressing concern is the UK pension risk transfer market, aka the bulk annuity market, where RBC sees heightened competitive pressure on several fronts. Three rival insurers have recently come under North American ownership, bringing fresh capital and an appetite for market share.

Investors in bookmakers should not get their hopes up too much on the anti-prediction markets legislation, notes my colleague.

The rally may be getting ahead of the reality, for a number of reasons.

One, prediction markets are a well-funded industry with sympathetic executive-branch regulators.

Two, the boss of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has publicly positioned his agency as the preeminent and exclusive federal regulator of prediction markets.

Three, the Trump administration is openly supportive of the sector, with Donald Trump Jr holding advisory roles at both Kalshi and Polymarket, while Trump Media and Technology Group has announced plans for its own prediction cryptocurrency-based platform called Truth Predict.

The FTSE 100 is up nearly 350 points from its earlier lows, a monster rally, as one analyst said.

Leading the way is Entain, up 8.4% on the back of Wall Street Journal report that legislation is being proposed that would essentially block betting on sports events on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

In New York, Flutter and DraftKings are up 6% and 3.6%.

The legislation is designed to prohibit firms registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission from listing bets on sporting events.

"The CFTC is greenlighting these markets and even promoting their growth," according to Senator Adam Schiff, one of the two proposers of the law.

"It's time for Congress to step in and eliminate this backdoor which violates state consumer protections, intrudes upon tribal sovereignty and offers no public revenue."

US stocks opened sharply higher, with the Nasdaq rising 2.0% in early trade, while the Dow Jones is up 1.8%, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%.

Gains were led by travel and tech names, with Norwegian Cruise Line up 6.4%, Carnival gaining 6.0% and Royal Caribbean rising 5.1%, while Palantir climbed 5.3% and Ciena added 5.4%.

In London, the FTSE 100 is up 0.5%, while the FTSE 250 is up 0.75%.

Housebuilders, miners and airlines, some of those most hurt by the Iran war shockwaves are the top risers.

The FTSE is upo 0.5%m, while on the mainland, Germany's DACX is up 2% and France's CAC is up 1.55%.

This suggests markets are taking encouragement from Trump's new stance, despite Iran's denials that talks have taken place.

Reports suggest diplomatic backchannels are active between the US and Iran.

Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan have been helping pass messages, according to Axios.

However, signals remain mixed, with Trump telling Fox that a deal could come “in five days or sooner” after talks were held “last night”.

But the US President said he is “not sure” what Iranian media is reporting, as Tehran has denied any direct talks, claiming US statements are aimed at lowering energy prices and “buy time” for military plans.

Per Axios, Iran has acknowledged initiatives from other countries in the region to reduce tensions, but its response to all of them  has been along the lines of "we are not the party that started this war, and all such requests should be directed to Washington".

TACO, the market's favourite acronym in Trump's second presidency as Trump Always Chickens Out seems to be coming to mind for many after President Trump signalled the US and Iran have held "productive conversations" over a resolution to the war.

"I would treat this with caution," says Neil Wilson at Saxo, as Trump's comments have already been refuted by Iran.

"It takes two to TACO," he says.

Iran's Fars news agency has responded, saying there was "no direct or indirect contact" with the US, nor through intermediaries, and claims he withdrew after Iran's threats to attack west Asia energy facilities.

The comments from Trump "trigger fresh questions", Wilson adds. "Can we believe that it’s this easy to end the conflict? Is Iran seeking a way out or do they want to continue asymmetric warfare for months? Can the US stop Israel?"

Wilson says he thinks "Trump has looked at the markets this morning and said anything to walk back the 48hr ultimatum issued on Saturday, without losing face. A classic TACO.

"It's incredibly difficult to trade these markets when Trump is swinging between massive escalation and declaring peace/victory... but the market is happy for now that we do not enter a new phase of danger."

The FTSE 100 ping-ponged from a 240-point loss to a gain of over 50, and now is back to flat.

US futures are more positive, with the S&P 500 expected to open around 1.6% higher.

There were enormous moves in bond markets too, with the UK 10-year gilt earlier rise to almost 5.1% before plunging to below 4.8%, a 30bps move in a matter of seconds.

Now two Bank of England rate hikes are priced for this year, down from four earlier, Wilson notes. "Bond markets are giving false signals on rate hikes anyway - the BOE is not about to hike 4 times into this shock."

As a result of Trump revealing the "very good" talks with Iran, now all but one of the FTSE 100 is now in positive territory, with bonds, commodities and currencies all whipsawing in the opposite direction than they were heading earlier.

Oil prices are down, gold losses have been pared, the dollar has weakened agains the pound and other currencies, and UK gilts have ducked back below 5%.

Brent crude, down 8.2% at $103 a barrel, are still obviously very elevated. US WTI is down 7.7% at under $91.

Sterling is up 0.3% at $1.3382 and the euro is up 0.1% at $1.1582.

There remains some caution, it seems.

OK, the FTSE 100 just sharply cut its losses and bonds dived lower.

The reason is that President Trump has posted that the US military has been ordered to postpone military strikes against Iran.

He said the US and Iran have held "very good and productive conversations" over the past two days aimed at a "complete and total resolution" of the war.

Writing on Truth Social, Trump said he had instructed the Department of Defense (or Department of War, as he rebanded it) to "postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions".

Trump said the discussions, which he described as "in depth, detailed, and constructive," would continue throughout the week.

After three hours of trading, the FTSE 100 is down over 230 points. Since midday last Wednesday, the index is down 7.2% to the lowest since 16 December.

If it stays around here, this would be the third session to lose more than 200 points since the start of the month.

Joining Rolls among the biggest fallers is BT Group and a batch of property companies, presumably linked to bonds and interest rates.

Segro, Londonmetric Property, Land Securities and British Land are down 2.3%-3%.

As a reminder, 10-year UK government bonds are trading at levels last seen in the 2008 crisis, while 2yr gilt yields are at theirt highest since late 2023.

There are only five FTSE 100 stocks in green this morning.

One of them is Croda International, the specialty chemicals maker, which has bucked the selling trend after Goldman Sachs double-upgraded the shares from 'sell' to 'buy' in a striking reversal of its previous stance.

Goldman said that when it downgraded the stock early last year, it had been concerned that market expectations of top line growth and margin expansion were overly ambitious.

Those concerns for the investment bank have since faded, with Croda's recovery actions delivering better than expected, outperforming specialty ingredients peers.

On the falls for airlines and Rolls-Royce this morning, here's some analysts' thoughts.

"While the Iran war continues to escalate, last week we saw first signs of potential spill-over effect on the commercial aerospace sector, especially in Europe," says Christophe Menard at Deutsche Bank.

Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain air space are "practically closed", he noted, while flights from UAE are theoretically operational but remain patchy, with reports of several cancelled and returned flights from the EU and Asia, with the first impact on European airlines being higher fuel prices and higher fuel consumption on re-routed flights.

"Now the concern has spilled over to the larger question of jet fuel availability. Europe is among the most exposed, with 25–30% of its jet fuel demand coming from the Gulf region.

"This now leaves Europe largely reliant on commercial inventories that typically amount to just over one month of demand."

Elsewhere, UBS data shows global airline capacity weakening in March, with year-on-year declines across most regions driven by international travel.

The US, UK and Germany are hardest hit, while China remains positive but slowing. European capacity is down 4%, with Spain and Italy more resilient than other major markets.

Government borrowing costs continue to balloon on both sides of the Atlantic.

The yield on the 10-year gilt is up above 5%, the first time since the 2028 global financial crisis, continuing a climb since the second half of last week.

While the 10y US Treasury is at 4.424%, the highest since last summer.

The "explosion in government bond yields" is the most worrying thing for markets, says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo, pointing out that a "significant blowout" on Friday saw the US 10yr breaking out of its prior range and German bund yields at 15-year levels.

Repricing at the shorter end has been particularly aggressive as markets price out rate cuts, he says, with 2yr gilts hitting 4.678 this morning, up from 4% last Wednesday morning.

"The positioning from central banks last week is not helping and markets have priced out any rate cuts and priced in hikes," Wilson says, with the UK particularly exposed to rising energy prices.

Analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB says the sharp rise in gilt yields compared to other countries "emphasizes the UK’s vulnerable position as a high inflation economy with weak public finances".

"It cannot afford its current welfare bill let alone to bail out households and businesses during this energy price spike, which makes for an uncomfortable period for the UK economy.

"Expect a wave of growth downgrades for the UK in the coming weeks, especially if the BOE sticks to its hawkish mantra."

Watching the Iranian conflict headlines over the weekend has been "exhausting", says macro analyst Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank.

He said the mood improved late on Friday night when Trump said he was considering "winding down" military operations and suggested that responsibility for policing the Strait of Hormuz would be transferred to other countries.

However, Trump published a social media post late on Saturday that Iran must "fully open, without threat" the Strait within 48 hours "from this exact point in time", warning that failure to do so would result in the US "obliterating" Iran’s power plants.

Iran’s response was that it would target "all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the Israeli regime in the region" if its fuel and energy infrastructure were to be attacked, while Israel’s rhetoric also continues to lean toward further escalation.

"Taken at face value," says Reid, "this makes 11.44pm GMT tonight (7.44pm ET) a potentially pivotal moment, unless it is overtaken by further headlines in the interim.

"One thing to watch might be US Treasury yields. On Friday they climbed +13bps to 4.38%, the highest since July and are up another +3bps this morning. The US administration appeared to show some sensitivity to this benchmark after Liberation Day and around the Greenland issue. So if yields do become more unanchored that could influence the length of the mission."

The FTSE 100 plummeted 150 points to 9,768 in initial trading at the start of the week. This is the lowest in three months, down to levels seen in mid-December.

Precious metals miners Endeavour and Fresnillo are at the front of the retreat, both down around 4% as gold and silver prices tumble. Copper miner Antofagasta is down 3.3% too.

They are followed by engine maker Rolls-Royce, British Airways owner IAG and easyJet as investors buckle up for a longer period of turbulence in air travel markets due to the Iran war, hiking fuel prices and dampening demand.

A group of financial stocks are also depressed, with M&G, Standard Life, St James's Place and Prudential all 2.5%-3% lower.

It's very quiet in terms of FTSE 350 news this morning.

FTSE 250-listed private hospitals operator Spire Healthcare has an RNS release, which was put out late on Friday that takeover talks with both Bridgepoint and Triton have ended, dashing hopes of the £1 billion-plus deal that had sent shares surging earlier that day.

The company said its board remains in discussions with other unnamed parties over a potential sale, though it cautioned there was no certainty a bid would emerge.

Spire put itself up for sale last autumn under pressure from shareholders frustrated by a stagnant share price, and remains in a formal Takeover Panel offer period.

Oil prices are up again this morning, with Brent crude rising another 1.4% to $113.60 a barrel and US WTI up 3% to above $101  a barrel.

UK and EU gas prices levelled off slightly at the end of last week, down from midweek highs.

Gold and silver prices are tanking further this morning, with gold down 8% to $4,133 an ounce, with silver falling 8.1% to $62.27.

Copper prices are being hit too, though iron ore is steady.

That spells falls for the FTSE's miners and is why the index futures are down almost 140 points now.

The FTSE 100 is expected to start the week by falling another 100-plus points to around three-month lows as new ultimatums were brandished in the Middle East as the war wages on.

London's blue-chip index was being called 125 points lower on Monday morning, after losing 140 at the end of last week, capping a five-day period which saw around 343 points chipped off the total to finish at 9,918.33, the lowest since late December.

US stocks fell sharply too, with the Nasdaq falling 2%, the S&P 500 dropping 1.5% and the Dow Jones losing 1%.

Asian markets are seeing declines this morning, after US President Donald Trump threatened that if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, he would "obliterate their power plants".

Iran warned in response that if this happened, it would target more of the region’s energy and desalination infrastructure.

Japan's Nikkei and China's Shanghai Composite both closed down around 3.5%, while the Hang Seng is down 4% in Hong Kong.