Argus

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Mar 17, 2026

Intermediate Term

Long Term

Summary

On Monday, stocks finally got some relief from the oil markets, as WTI declined 4.6% to $94/barrel and Brent dropped 2.6% to $100.50/barrel. The S&P 500, S&P 100, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all bounced 1% to 1.2% on broad sector strength. Information Technology led, rising 1.5%, Consumer Discretionary rose 1.2%, Industrials added 0.9%, and Financial, Healthcare, Real Estate, and Communication Services all gained 0.8%. While the overall technicals remain questionable for the major indices, we are seeing some clear washouts in sentiment and market breadth.  According to Goldman Sachs, short exposure across macro products -- index futures and ETFs combined -- has climbed to the highest level since September 2022, an extreme positioning that could easily set the stage for an explosive short squeeze. As well, during the week of March 3 to 10, asset managers dumped $36.2 billion of S&P futures according to the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, the largest notional liquidation in more than a decade. In other words, the institutional crowd did not just trim sails -- they hauled down the canvas and ran for the lifeboats, marking the biggest retreat in futures exposure in over 10 years.  Last Thursday, the SPX's McClellan

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