Nebius Group (NBIS) secured a $27 billion deal with Meta over five years ($12 billion dedicated capacity plus up to $15 billion additional compute) and is surging 14% in pre-market trading, representing a contract exceeding the company’s $24.79 billion market cap. The deal includes one of the first large-scale deployments of NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin AI chips.

Meta is locking in capacity with Nebius as part of its $135 billion AI capex plan this year, betting on the company’s proven track record of delivering infrastructure on schedule for hyperscalers building AI infrastructure at scale.

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Nebius just landed the biggest contract in its short history. Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) is surging 14% in pre-market trading after announcing a deal with Meta (NASDAQ:META) worth up to $27 billion over five years - $12 billion in dedicated capacity and up to $15 billion in additional available compute. The deal also includes one of the first large-scale deployments of NVIDIA's new Vera Rubin AI chips.

For context: Nebius's entire market cap sits around $25 billion. A single customer just committed to a contract that could exceed the company's current market value.

This isn't a random vendor relationship. Meta has disclosed up to $135 billion in AI capex planned for this year, and they need partners who can deliver at scale, on time. Nebius proved it could, completing multi-year capacity agreements with both Microsoft ($17.4 billion to $19.4 billion through 2031) and Meta on schedule - a track record that matters when hyperscalers are racing to build AI infrastructure.

Read: Data Shows One Habit Doubles American’s Savings And Boosts Retirement

Most Americans drastically underestimate how much they need to retire and overestimate how prepared they are. But data shows that people with one habit have more than double the savings of those who don’t.

Nebius ended 2025 with 170+ MW of active power, sold out of every available rack and actively turning customers away. The Q4 revenue miss wasn't a demand problem - it was a supply problem. The company reported $227.7 million in Q4 revenue, growing 503.6% year-over-year, with ARR ending the year at $1.25 billion, blowing past guidance of $900 million to $1.1 billion.

CEO Arkady Volozh set the stage heading into 2026:

"2025 has been a building year as we put in place the infrastructure and framework for future rapid growth. This year, we believe that we have successfully laid the foundations for an outstanding 2026 — a year that should firmly position us among the top AI cloud businesses globally. And at the same time, 2026 is still just the beginning."

The bull case is straightforward: Nebius has guided for $7 billion to $9 billion in ARR by end of 2026 and plans to reach over 3 GW of contracted power with 800 MW to 1 GW connected by year-end. The Meta deal anchors that trajectory. Analysts carry an average price target of $154.73, with 75% of covering analysts bullish before today's announcement.

The bear case is real. Nebius burned $4 billion in capex in 2025 and carries $4.1 billion in convertible debt. Free cash flow came in at negative $3.664 billion for the full year. This is a company spending aggressively to build infrastructure before revenue arrives - which works until it doesn't. Customer concentration in Microsoft and Meta is a genuine risk if either relationship frays.

The stock is up 331.6% over the past year and 34.94% year-to-date. Bulls point to the AI infrastructure buildout having years of runway and Nebius's execution record as reasons the stock could continue higher. Bears cite the capital intensity and customer concentration risk as concerns at a $24.79 billion market cap before today's move. The Meta deal doesn't eliminate execution risk - it raises the stakes.

Most Americans drastically underestimate how much they need to retire and overestimate how prepared they are. But data shows that people with one habit have more than double the savings of those who don’t.

And no, it’s got nothing to do with increasing your income, savings, clipping coupons, or even cutting back on your lifestyle. It’s much more straightforward (and powerful) than any of that. Frankly, it’s shocking more people don’t adopt the habit given how easy it is.