Some Americans could see their heat and power bills go up as the U.S.-led war in Iran continues to cause the price of crude oil to swing wildly, according to energy experts.

Rising oil prices are going to most directly impact the heating costs of Americans who rely on heating oil to warm their homes, said Ken Troske, an economics professor at the University of Kentucky’s Gatton College of Business and Economics.

Those Americans make up a small portion of the population. Just under 5 million households, mainly located in the Northeast, used heating oil as their primary means of heating their homes in the winter of 2023 to 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Experts told HuffPost that those households have likely already seen their heating bills increase due to the war in Iran and should brace themselves for even higher costs over the next six to eight weeks.

Heating oil prices could jump by $1 to $1.35 more for a gallon in the near future, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. He warned that home heating oil costs could rise even more if the Northeast backslides into colder weather, bumping up demand.

“We could see home heating oil prices in excess of $5 a gallon as we finish out the heating season,” De Haan said.

Most of the country uses natural gas and electricity to heat and power their homes, and those households will likely feel the impact of the U.S-Israel war in Iran on their heating and electric bills beginning in late March or April, according to Pat Penfield, a professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University.

Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is playing a critical role in the rising costs of oil and liquefied natural gas, experts noted.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway south of the country that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. About a fifth of the world’s traded oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait to reach buyers around the world. In 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the waterway per day, according to the EIA.

“Because the Strait of Hormuz is such a critical chokepoint for the world’s oil and liquified natural gas supply, any disruption there tends to push prices higher,” Penfield said. “We’re seeing that now ― oil prices have risen sharply, and liquified natural gas prices in Europe increased by 50% in just 48 hours.”

Global crude oil prices began to climb a day after the U.S. and Israel began the war with Iran, increasing to about $70 to $80 per barrel during the first week of the war. Oil briefly shot up to $119 per barrel on Monday before falling to about $86 later that day.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday that member nations would release 400 million barrels of their strategic oil reserves ― the organization’s largest release ever of stockpiled oil ― to combat rising oil and gas prices, and the war in Iran continued to disrupt energy markets.

Later that day, President Donald Trump told a local Cincinnati TV station that the U.S. would tap into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve and release 172 million barrels of oil as part of the larger IEA effort. The release is scheduled to start next week and last for 120 days, according to a statement from U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright.

The last time the U.S. dipped into its oil reserves was under President Joe Biden. Biden announced in 2022 that he would draw 180 million barrels of oil from the country’s reserve to help knock down rising energy prices stemming from the war in Ukraine.

Trump criticized Biden at the time for dipping into the oil reserves, arguing that they should instead be used for large-scale emergencies or military conflicts.

Experts who spoke with HuffPost said they are skeptical that the move is a long-term solution for bringing down the price of oil.

Jenny Rowland-Shea, director for public lands at the Center for American Progress, said that tapping into strategic oil reserves is generally a good tool for providing immediate relief to high gas prices by flooding the market.

She noted that the price of oil dropped when Biden released roughly 200 million barrels of oil from the country’s reserves in 2022. An analysis by the Biden administration found the move lowered gas prices by $0.17 to $0.42.

But alone, the measure is not enough to buffer the supply shock, she added, especially if the war continues. This is, in part, because the reserve currently holds 415 million barrels of oil and is about 40% below capacity, according to the EIA. Trump has said that replenishing the SPR is a priority, but his administration has yet to do so.

Troske does not think the price of oil will come down just because the U.S. and the IEA decided to dip into oil reserves, arguing that the price of oil’s climb to $100 a barrel on Thursday, despite the IEA’s announcement, was “predictable.”

Troske added, “The markets know those reserves are there… they know that [governments] are going to do this.”

If you’re one of the people affected by an increase in energy prices, there are a few things you can do to attempt to maximize efficiency and keep costs low.

The first is obvious, but be mindful of the temperature on your thermostat as best as possible. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, “you can save as much as 10% a year on heating and cooling by simply turning your thermostat back 7 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit for eight hours a day from its normal setting.”

You can also make a few adjustments to keep heat in your home. Look into draft seals for the bottom of your doors, allow sun into your rooms with the windows shut, do routine maintenance on your heating system to make sure it runs optimally, and use space heaters for singular rooms you’re occupying (just make sure you follow the right safety measures if you’re going to use one).

CORRECTION: This was updated to correct the number of barrels currently in the SPR.

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