Argus

•

Mar 12, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

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Short

Summary

When global economic conditions are uncertain, investors often flock to gold. Gold is currently trading at around $5,160 per ounce, up more than 17% for the year and near the high end of its five-year range of $1,660-$5,200. Back in 2019, it was fetching about $1,200 per ounce. That changed rapidly during the first phase of the pandemic, as the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped 33% in six months. Gold next spiked in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine. Over the past year, it has jumped 75%, driven by global uncertainty over tariffs and the recent attack on Iran. The current price of gold reflects the perceived safety of hard assets as well as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates, which tend to weaken the dollar (the currency in which gold is priced). The outlook for interest-rate rate cuts helps because lower rates reduce the risk of a global economic recession and thus a potential decline in gold purchased for jewelry. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2026 is $4,000-$6,000 and our average price forecast for the year is $5,200. Is the current upward trend sustainable? From a technical standpoint, the price of gold is in a long-term bullish trend of higher highs and higher lows. That's positive. But this latest spike is a bit extraordinary.  On average this century, the price of gold has traded at a 6% premium to its 12-month moving average. The standard deviation is 9%. The current premium is 38%, or more than 3 standard deviations above the norm. For a fundamental valuation

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