U.S. consumer prices rose 2.4% in February from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported March 11, in line with forecasters’ expectations.

The February figure means the rate of annual inflation held steady after falling from 2.7% in December last year to 2.4% in January. Normally, that reading might suggest inflation is stabilizing, but the data may reveal less about inflation's trajectory than usual, as it does not account for gas and oil price surges sparked by the Iran war in early March.

"These inflation numbers provide some comfort, but this month’s spike in energy prices make them a relic of the past," David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, an online brokerage firm, said in a note to USA TODAY. "Investors and the Fed are in uncharted territory right now, taking their cues from crude oil and tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz."

From January to February, prices rose by 0.3%, up from a 0.2% increase in the first month of the year. The cost of shelter, food, and energy increased over the month, while the price of used cars and trucks, as well as motor vehicle insurance,declined, the BLS said.

More: Iran war live updates: 3 ships attacked in Strait of Hormuz

Core inflation, the BLS' metric excluding volatile food and energy prices rose 0.2% in February, down from a 0.3% increase in January. Over the last 12 months, core inflation is up 2.5%.

Seasonally adjusted gasoline prices increased 0.8% in February after falling 3.2% in January. Over the year, they were down 5.6%.

However, the BLS collected February data just before the United States went to war with Iran, so the report misses the resulting oil price spikes.

As of the morning of March 11, regular unleaded is averaging $3.58, up from $2.94 last month, and up from $3.08 a year ago, according to AAA.

Across the board, the BLS’ food at home index increased 0.4% in February, up from a 0.2% increase in January.

Price gains were driven by the rising cost of fruits and vegetables, which increased by 1.4% over the month. Nonalcoholic beveragesalso got more expensive, rising 0.8%. The index for “other” food at home increased as well, also rising 0.8%, as candy and chewing gum prices rose 3.7%.

Some items on shoppers’ grocery lists got more affordable, including cheese, which saw a 1.2% price decline. The overall dairy and related products index decreased 0.6% in February. Cereals and bakery products also got less expensive, declining 0.2%.

More: How much will groceries cost this week? Use this Grocery Price Tracker

As some Americans struggle to afford their bills, the BLS’ shelter index rose 0.2% in February. However, the index for rent rose only 0.1%, marking the smallest one-month increase since January 2021.

Electricity costs, another pain point for consumers, declined 0.7% in February. Over the last 12 months, the electricity index is up 4.8%.

Meanwhile, medical care costs increased 0.5% in February, and are up 3.4% over the last year.

After a worse-than-expected BLS employment report found U.S. employers shed 92,000 jobs in February, Federal Reserve policymakers are likely eyeing this inflation data to inform their next rate decision at their two-day meeting on March 17 and 18.

Oxford Economics predicts no change to the federal funds rate, a benchmark for interest rates nationwide, until officials can gauge the economic impact of the Iran war.

"An oil price shock represents a two-sided risk for the Federal Reserve's dual mandate," Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Bernard Yaros said in a note following the report's release. "If anything, we feel more confident than before that the central bank will wait until June before cutting interest rates again. Monetary policymakers will need to make sure that long-run inflation expectations don't become unmoored, which is unlikely."

As of March 11, forecasters see the FOMC maintaining the 3.5% to 3.75% target range at its next meeting, with odds of a rate cut rising in the summer.

This is a developing story and will be updated to add new information.

Reach Rachel Barber at rbarber@usatoday.com and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Inflation held steady at 2.4% in February, ahead of Iran war