Argus

•

Mar 11, 2026

Intermediate Term

Long Term

Summary

Up and down we go, and where we land, nobody knows. Such is the hour-by-hour action in the crude oil market. Light sweet crude (WTI) peaked at $91.50/barrel on Tuesday, plummeted to an intraday low of $76.75, and near the close was trading at $86.60, down almost 9%. The midday swoon occurred after a post was made by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who said that the U.S. Navy had escorted its first oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. But it turned out that the event did not happen, and the post was taken down quickly. The financial markets have enough to deal without that kind of noise. Brent oil fell to $81 intraday and closed near $91.   Oil volatility (OVX) based on option premiums of the United States Oil Fund (USO) closed at 108%, the highest reading since the conflict began. It is also the highest close, excluding the pandemic, since collection of the data started in 2008. Trading volume on the USO was over 134 million, almost matching Monday's record. Since late February, bullish sentiment for crude oil has spiked to the highest level since April of 2024 -- and before that, since September of 2023. Both of those periods represented an intermediate-term peak for oil.   Considering the volatility in crude o

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