Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz is warning the GOP that Texas has the “exact ingredient” for a potential Democratic upset in November’s election for a U.S. Senate seat.

“The assumption has been for the last 20, 25 years, that Texas is solidly Republican,” he told NewsNation’s Leland Vittert. “But the demographics have been changing.”

He said the state is becoming less white and Democrats are getting better organized. In addition, Democrats this year are seeing “incredibly high” turnout in special elections and primaries around the country.

In Texas, more than 2.2 million people voted in this week’s Democratic primary ― a midterm record for the state ― as state Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett.

“If you’re a Democrat, you can’t wait to vote,” Luntz said. “Every Democrat is looking to participate.

Some Republican voters, on the other hand, are staying home.

And in Texas, there’s another issue: a vicious primary that’s about to get even uglier as the contest between state Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is heading to a runoff.

President Donald Trump is reportedly getting ready to endorse Cornyn, with the expectation that Paxton would then drop out.

But Paxton has indicated he will not.

“The Republicans still have a clear advantage,” Luntz said. “But that advantage has been shrinking and shrinking. And when you have two candidates destroying each other, like these two are, this is the exact ingredient that you could have low Republican turnout in November, a split party, you could conceivably see a Democrat surprising people.”

Luntz also warned Republicans that control over the Senate could hinge on a single issue ― and it’s one that’s not helping the GOP at the moment: affordability.

“That’s it,” he said. “That’s the key decider.”

See more of that conversation below.

Remember what happened with Georgia’s Senate seats during the 2020 election?If Republicans keep attacking each other in the Texas Senate GOP primary run-off, it could leave their seat vulnerable this November.I spoke with @LelandVittert about what this could mean for 2026. 🗳️ pic.twitter.com/jVzuOZlS4X

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