A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift

Is the crisis in the Middle East and its fallout on ‌global markets just a "bump on the road" or does it portend a ‌long period of uncertainty for global trade?

The rosier take was voiced by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who ​told Fox News that the conflict with Iran, which has killed hundreds and paralysed oil shipments in the region, would be a "small price" to pay to achieve America's military goals.

Less optimistic was Kristalina Georgieva of the International Monetary Fund, who warned of a prolonged ‌period of flux as the ⁠war, kicked off by U.S. and Israeli air strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader, tests global economies.

There were no fresh signals of a ⁠diplomatic off-ramp to the hostilities or improved security for ships trying their luck across the Strait of Hormuz. Instead the Republican-led Senate voted to block a resolution aiming to stop ​the air ​war on Iran, which launched a fresh wave ​of missiles at Israel.

Even so, markets ‌seemed split. Asian shares surged, led by a recovery in South Korea's KOSPI. Oil prices continued their climb, while gold, the classic safe-haven asset, also rose.

China's closely watched National People's Congress got underway with a host of announcements and plans. The nation's shares reacted positively to a slightly slower growth target that signalled a shift towards rebalancing ‌the economy and boosting consumption.

Stock futures for Europe ​and the U.S. started off with gains before reversing ​course and pointing to declines when ​those markets open.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

* Euro ‌zone retail sales for January

* European Central ​Bank President Christine ​Lagarde speaks

* France - industrial output data for January; reopening of 10-year, 17-year and 20-year government debt auctions

* United Kingdom – Reopening of 3-year government debt auction

* U.S. data ​on weekly jobless claims, ‌Challenger layoffs (February), productivity (Q4, prelim), and import prices (January)

* Speeches by Federal Reserve Bank of ​Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman

(Reporting ​by Rocky Swift; Editing by Sonali Paul)